Category Archives: Election

talk about election , mostly about kuwait

So now what ? Election and what i think would happen (1)

Iโ€™m going to talk about what I think would happen in the parliament Election after women were granted the right to vote , most of what I would write here is what I think based on some statistic ( will mention them when I include them ) and mostly word of the mouth and observation

So don’t take my word as a absolute fact, I could be mistaken, I could be right

Anyway, since I was talking with other bloggers about the Second District (Thahyat Abdullah AlSalim)

First little information from Ministry of interior
At the moment the district has 2283 voters, and in the past 4 election the trend was 10% increase in size
So the men count would be around 2500, add women to the mix, Iโ€™ll assume women are 40 % the count of men in the district, so the total would be around 3500

Now to check the people who may run for the next election in this district?

First we have
Abdullah AlNibari, ran 4 time since 1992 won 3 and lost the forth time

    First time 1992 became second and got 470 vote
    Second time 1996 became first and got 654 vote (the guy who got first in 1992 didn’t run again)
    Third time 1999 became second and got 847 vote
    Forth time 2003 became Third and got 606 vote (lost)

Now AlNibari tried to run on the bases that he was stopping theft of public money and he wanted to let women vote (a secondary theme for the campaign) but lost
Although the district had 230 more voters he had 241 vote less than his last time he lost around 28% votes
He kept on losing because people wanted new blood, and he still isn’t a new blood so he would keep on losing more people
Also if marzooq AlGhanim ran, he would lose part of his voting Block, the traditional trade voters
not ot mention if any liberal lady ran for election she would just take all what he would gain from women voters , and some of his men voting block

Secondly we have Abdullwahab AlHaroon ran 3 times since 1996 and still keep his seat

    First time 1996 became second and got 602 vote
    Second time 1999 became first and got 941 vote
    Third time 2003 became second and got 652 vote

A lot speculate that AlHaroon had a partnership with AlNibari, since most vote ballets had both their names together; also AlHaroon had a big drop like AlNibari, from 941 votes to 652 with a loss of 289 aka 30%
Also if marzooq AlGhanim ran, he would lose part of his voting Block, the traditional trade voters

Third is the Talk of the Majlis, Mohammed AlMutair, who ran one time and won it

    First time 2003 became first and got 683 vote

Mohammed AlMutair voter base was the widest, from far left to far right; he got a sample out of every group
and his vote did anger some of his voters , but he have those who agree with him and voted for him , and are now agreeing that he is the man to continue , he did gain extra voters and lost some voters
Also if marzooq AlGhanim ran, he would lose part of his voting Block, young and hip people, because Marzooq is famous because sport, and that a + factor for Marzooq

Forth is Marzooq AlGhanim , who everyone is sure that he would run for election , since he is leading Kuwait sport club , which is the most used jumping point for politics ( Ahmad Alsaadon was Kazma sport club president , and Mohammed AlSager was Kuwait sport club president before also )
What is his chance? I think he has a big chance to win, if he can run the same gig AlMutair do (get sampler out of each group)
Of course itโ€™s not going to be easy for him; Ali Thunayan AlGhanim (his father) did run in 1992 and got 311 votes
If he ran for election he can get a bigger chunk of Traditional trade voters who are the main block in the district

Fifth is Salah AlAbdullJader who ran 3 times since 1996 and lost in them all

    First time 1996 became Third and got 472 vote
    Second time 1999 became third and got 589 vote
    Third time 2003 became fifth and got 502 vote

Which show he lost 87 votes aka 14%
Would he run again next time? Iโ€™m sure of it, there is the woman factor now, which may be the thing that would let him got the parliament seat this time
His strongest point is that he gain from women vote, but he follow Islamic brotherhood whose two parliament members voted against women vote, not that his voters block would suffer much from it, but it could hurt him a bit
And Marzooq AlGhanim running wouldn’t hurt him much like the others, his voting Block aren’t ones to be pulled by Marzooq AlGhanim

What I think is that if a liberal lady ran with AlHaroon with AlNibari saying he support them, they have a very big chance of winning the district but that wouldn’t happen in Kuwait, we enjoy backstabbing too much
So if all five I mention run, plus a liberal lady and another liberal guy and Marzooq failed to get a bigger chunk out of young voters AlMutair and AlAbdullJader would win it if they exchanged votes
Which also I don’t think would happen because some of AlMutair voter block do not like Islamic brotherhood
(Part of Salaf support AlMutair for lack of Salafi guy in the district and Salaf think they don’t Islamic brotherhood partnership to gain parliament seats)
If there was no partnership or exchange of votes, AlHaroon and AlGhanim would take the seats

( did you like my writeup ? any thing you think missing , want more ? comment ๐Ÿ˜› )